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Sales dive by 15.2% in March as inventory remains low
I’m here with your latest real estate update. Sales took a dive by 15.2% this March compared to last year, painting a picture of a challenging market. Despite this drop, sellers still hold the upper hand due to persistently low inventory levels.
March saw a decrease in new listings, with only 275 hitting the market, marking a 6.8% decline from March 2023. The average price for a home in March settled at $339,613, with the median price nearly mirroring this at $335,000.
Zooming out to the broader scope of the first quarter, the trend continues downward. Total sales from January to March fell by 4.9% to 371, while new listings dipped by 2.1% to 616. The average price for the first three months clocked in at $322,302, with the median price closely trailing at $319,900.
Bidding wars have become a common occurrence in this competitive landscape as buyers grapple with limited options in the seller’s domain.
However, amidst the uncertainty, there is a glimmer of hope. The Bank of Canada has refrained from hiking its key overnight interest rate since July 2023, offering potential relief for mortgage holders. Speculation looms as the central bank eyes possible rate cuts later this year, contingent upon economic and inflationary trajectories aligning with their forecasts. It’s a waiting game, but there may be light at the end of the tunnel for those navigating the mortgage market. Stay tuned for further developments.
Fredericton home sales surge in February as average price dips slightly
In February, home sales in the Fredericton region reached 132, marking a 16.8% increase from February last year. New listings during the same period surged by 10.2%, totaling 194. However, the average price dipped slightly to $314,758, down 1.4% compared to February 2023.
Year-to-date figures or numbers for the first two months of 2024 reveal a 2.8% uptick in total home sales, reaching 218. Total listings rose by 2.1% to 341. Meanwhile, the average price saw a notable increase, reaching $310,842, up by 7.2% from the previous year.
Year 2023 Witnesses Sharp Decline in Home Sales, Prices Show Modest Increase
The year 2023 concluded with a notable decrease in home sales, totaling 2,211 units over the course of the year. This figure marks a significant downturn of 11.6% from the previous year, signaling a challenging market landscape.
Despite the decrease in sales volume, the more comprehensive annual average price of homes showed a modest gain. The average price for the entirety of 2023 settled at $314,988, reflecting a slight increase of 2.3% from the previous year.
As the year drew to a close, active residential listings numbered 320 units on the market by the end of December. This figure represents a decrease of 4.5%, equivalent to 15 listings, compared to December 2022. The scarcity in listings becomes even more pronounced when considering that active listings were 14.8% below the five-year average and a staggering 57.4% below the 10-year average for the month of December.
The combination of decreased sales volume and dwindling active listings poses challenges for both buyers and sellers navigating the real estate market.
Higher interest rates have played a crucial role in buyers’ affordability. For now the Bank of Canada has not increased the interest rate, but some economists are predicting a cut to interest rate in June 2024, but central bank’s governor, Tiff Macklem said that inflation was still high and that it was premature to discuss a cut to interest rates.
November sales up but year-to-date sales down 11.8%
In November 2023, the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc. reported a robust total of 161 homes sold through the MLS® System, marking a significant 14.2% increase from the same month in 2022.
However, home sales fell below the five-year average by 9.4%, yet surpassed the 10-year average by 4.7% for the month of November. On a year-to-date basis, home sales for the first 11 months of 2023 amounted to 2,115 units, reflecting a decline of 11.8% compared to the same period in 2022.
Michele Morris, President of the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc., commented on the market dynamics, noting, “In a noteworthy turn of events, sales managed to notch the third-highest total in history for this month.
Conversely, new listings have taken a bit of a dip from last year, falling below what we would typically expect around this time of year.”
Morris continued, “Subsequently, overall inventory dropped to the lowest monthly level since early 2023, slipping below the long-term averages. As a result, sellers continue to enjoy favorable conditions. The benchmark price is the real headliner here, continuing its ascent and now up almost 10% – hitting the highest level of the year so far. Our local market is well positioned as we navigate through the tail end of the year and into 2024.”
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) revealed a composite benchmark price of $292,500 in November 2023, showing a moderate gain of 6.4% compared to November 2022. The benchmark price for single-family homes reached $293,200, marking a 6.3% increase year-over-year, while the benchmark apartment price was $276,800, up by 8.2% from the previous year.
The average price of homes sold in November 2023 was $271,703, representing a decrease of 6.4% from November 2022. The year-to-date average price was $316,670, showing a modest gain of 2.9% from the first 11 months of 2022.
The dollar value of all home sales in November 2023 amounted to $43.7 million, indicating a substantial increase of 6.8% from the same month in 2022.
October sales up 2.2%, but year-to-date sales down 13.4%
In October 2023, the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc. reported a total of 184 homes sold through the MLS® System, marking a modest 2.2% increase (four sales) from the same month in 2022.
However, home sales fell below the five-year average by 12.8% and were 1.8% below the 10-year average for October. On a year-to-date basis, home sales for the first ten months of 2023 amounted to 1,954 units, reflecting a substantial decline of 13.4% compared to the same period in 2022.
Michele Morris, President of the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc., noted, “Sales have seen a slight uptick from the previous year, but we’re still below our usual long-term averages. New listings have remained steady, aligning with typical seasonal patterns. Notably, overall inventory has decreased from the previous year, falling below the expected levels for this season.”
Regarding prices, there has been a year-over-year increase across all housing types, with apartments leading the way with a solid 5% boost. The market continues to favor sellers, although a gradual move toward a more balanced state has been observed in recent months.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) revealed a composite benchmark price of $290,500 in October 2023, reflecting a modest gain of 1.6% compared to the same month in 2022. The benchmark price for single-family homes reached $290,900, a 1.4% increase year-over-year, while apartments saw a more substantial uptick at $280,700, up by 5.2%.
The average price of homes sold in October 2023 was $314,533, marking an 11.7% increase from October 2022. The year-to-date average price was $320,378, showing a modest rise of 3.8% over the first ten months of 2022.
The total dollar value of home sales in October 2023 reached $57.9 million, a significant uptick of 14.2% compared to the same month in 2022, setting a new record for October.
New listings surged by 20.9% from October 2022, totaling 255 new residential listings in October 2023. Although new listings were 5.8% above the five-year average, they fell 5.3% below the 10-year average for October.
As of the end of October 2023, active residential listings numbered 479 units, a 3.4% decrease from the end of October 2022. Active listings were 17.4% below the five-year average and a significant 53.5% below the 10-year average for October.
The months of inventory stood at 2.6 at the end of October 2023, down from 2.8 recorded at the end of October 2022 and below the long-run average of 6 months for this time of year. Months of inventory represent the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
Fredericton home sales down nearly 20% year over year
In September 2023, the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area reported a total of 171 homes sold through the MLS® System, marking a 19% decline compared to September 2022.
These figures indicated that home sales were notably below both the five-year and ten-year averages for September, registering at 27% and 14% below, respectively.
On a year-to-date basis, the accumulated home sales for the first nine months of 2023 reached 1,769 units, marking a substantial drop of 14.8% when compared to the same period in 2022.
To provide a more accurate reflection of price trends, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was utilized, revealing an overall composite benchmark price of $288,000 in September 2023. This figure demonstrated minimal change, with only a 0.6% decrease compared to September 2022.
The benchmark price for single-family homes was nearly unchanged at $288,200, experiencing a minor decrease of 0.8% year-over-year in September. In contrast, the benchmark price for apartments rose to $282,900, indicating a 4.9% increase from the previous year.
The average price of homes sold in September 2023 stood at $298,466, reflecting a notable 11.8% increase when compared to September 2022. On a year-to-date basis, the average price was $321,032, showing a modest gain of 3.2% from the first nine months of 2022.
Home sales down 7.5% in August, as inventory drops
In a recent report, the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc. has revealed a snapshot of the housing market's performance for August 2023, shedding light on the notable trends and challenges facing the region.
During August 2023, a total of 222 homes changed hands, as recorded by the MLS® System. This figure reflects a 7.5% decline compared to the same period in the previous year, indicating a somewhat subdued market activity.
Zooming out to assess the year-to-date performance, the report reveals that 1,596 homes were sold in the first eight months of 2023. However, this number marks a 14.5% drop from the equivalent period in 2022, underlining a substantial slowdown in the housing market over the course of the year.
A key highlight in the report is the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), lauded for its precision in capturing price trends. In August 2023, the overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price stood at $290,700, reflecting a 2.1% decrease compared to the same month in the prior year. Notably, the benchmark price for single-family homes registered at $291,200, showing a modest decline of 2.3% year-over-year, while the benchmark price for apartments exhibited a slight increase of 2.2%, reaching $277,900.
Intriguingly, the average price of homes sold in August 2023 surged to $317,155, marking a substantial gain of 16.3% when compared to August 2022. The year-to-date average price also demonstrated a more modest uptick, reaching $323,653, a 2.4% increase from the first eight months of 2022.
Furthermore, the total dollar value of home sales in August 2023 amounted to an impressive $70.4 million. This figure represented a significant increase of 7.6% when juxtaposed with the corresponding month in 2022, setting a new record for August in terms of dollar value.
Shifting the focus to the supply side of the market, the report unveiled a substantial reduction of 11.1% in new residential listings during August 2023 when compared to the same period in the previous year. A mere 281 new listings made their way to the market, marking the lowest number of new listings for an August in two decades. Moreover, new listings for August were 12.7% below the five-year average and a noteworthy 18.1% below the 10-year average.
Conversely, the number of active residential listings, or available homes on the market, reached a total of 496 units by the end of August 2023. This figure signaled a significant decline of 17.9% from the same period in 2022 and marked the lowest level of active listings for August in 25 years. These figures reveal that active listings were not only 28.8% below the five-year average but also a substantial 58.6% below the 10-year average for the month.
In summary, the statistics unveiled by the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc. paint a picture of the Fredericton housing market in August 2023 characterized by declining sales, limited inventory, and price trends in flux. These figures underscore the unique challenges and opportunities that prospective buyers and sellers face in this dynamic market.
Fredericton Real Estate Sees 6.8% Rise in July Sales Amidst Year-to-Date Decline
The Fredericton real estate arena witnessed a substantial surge in home sales during the month of July 2023, as reported by the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area.
The tally of units sold reached an impressive 219, signifying a noteworthy uptick of 6.8% when contrasted with the same period in the preceding year, July 2022. This surge, equivalent to 14 additional sales, reflects a positive trajectory in the market.
However, this growth should be analyzed in the context of the larger trends. The current sales figures, despite the July boost, fall short of the norm. Sales for the month were 16.4% below the five-year average and 11.6% below the 10-year average for July, indicating a market that is yet to fully regain its footing.
Zooming out to consider the year-to-date data reveals a mixed narrative. Over the initial seven months of 2023, a total of 1,373 homes were sold – a substantial drop of 15.6% in comparison to the corresponding period in the preceding year, 2022. This underscores a more extended trend of stagnation and potential market challenges that have shaped the year so far.
A crucial barometer of market trends, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), unveiled insights into the price dynamics. In July 2023, the overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price stood at $289,600. This represents a moderated decline of 5.3% when contrasted with the same month in the previous year, 2022.
Further analysis into specific segments of the housing market showcased varied trends. The benchmark price for single-family homes observed a reduction of 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, reaching $290,300 in July. Conversely, benchmark apartment prices experienced a more modest contraction of 2.9%, settling at $273,600 compared to the prior year.
When considering average prices, the month of July 2023 saw homes sell at an average price of $317,110, indicating a minor 2% increase in comparison to the same month in 2022. This growth was mirrored in the year-to-date average price, which experienced a 0.6% rise to reach $324,351, based on data from the initial seven months of both 2023 and 2022.
Delving into the financial realm, the cumulative value of home sales for July 2023 reached an impressive $69.4 million. This marked a substantial 9% surge when compared to the parallel month in the previous year, 2022.
The real estate landscape also bore witness to a significant shift in new listings. Comparing July 2023 to July 2022, the number of new residential listings experienced a substantial 22.4% decrease, with only 274 listings recorded. This figure represents the lowest number of new listings for the month of July in over two decades. Additionally, these new listings fell 21.5% below the five-year average and a significant 25.5% below the 10-year average for the month, reinforcing the trend of reduced listing activity.
Active residential listings by the close of July 2023 numbered 502 units, showcasing a notable reduction of 16.5% from the same time in 2022. This statistic is especially striking considering that active listings haven’t demonstrated such low levels for the month of July in the past 25 years. These numbers also contrasted greatly with the historical averages, as they fell 29.2% below the five-year average and an astonishing 59.8% below the 10-year average for the month.
Shifting focus to inventory dynamics, the months of inventory – a crucial gauge of market health – stood at 2.3 by the end of July 2023. This represented a reduction from the 2.9 months recorded in July 2022 and a substantial dip beneath the long-term average of 5.4 months for this time of the year. This statistic signifies a potentially tightening market, where available homes could be absorbed more rapidly.
As Fredericton’s real estate sector navigates these fluctuations, industry observers will remain attentive to signals that offer insights into the trajectory of the market in the coming months. 
Home sales drop by 7.7% in June
Home sales in the Fredericton area experienced a moderate decline in June 2023, according to the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc.
A total of 286 units were sold during the month, reflecting a 7.7% decrease compared to June 2022. This figure also fell 9.1% below the five-year average and 1.5% below the 10-year average for June.
Cumulatively, home sales for the first half of 2023 amounted to 1,156 units, indicating a substantial decline of 18.6% compared to the same period in 2022. However, despite the year-over-year decline, June’s home sales showed improvement compared to the previous month, marking the fifth consecutive month of increasing sales and suggesting a positive trend in the local market.
Michele Morris, President of the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc., noted that the number of newly listed properties decreased in June, resulting in an overall inventory of fewer than 500 available homes. The sustained rise in sales, combined with limited new listings, has exacerbated the ongoing supply shortage. Notably, the number of active listings hit a record low for any June, further underscoring the scarcity of available properties.
Regarding pricing, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) revealed a 5.1% decline in the overall composite benchmark price, which stood at $288,400 in June 2023 compared to June 2022. The benchmark price for single-family homes was $289,300, reflecting a 5.2% decrease year-over-year, while the benchmark apartment price was $267,600, showing a slight reduction of 2.4% from the previous year.
The average price of homes sold in June 2023 was $336,481, representing an 8.7% increase compared to June 2022. However, the year-to-date average price remained relatively stable, with a minimal 0.4% rise to $325,633 compared to the first six months of 2022.
In terms of market value, the total dollar value of home sales in June 2023 reached $96.2 million, a marginal increase of 0.3% compared to the same month in 2022. This figure set a new record for the month of June.
New residential listings experienced a significant decline, plummeting by 26.7% from June 2022. A mere 332 new listings were added in June 2023, marking the lowest number for June in two decades. These figures stood 18.4% below the five-year average and 24.3% below the 10-year average for the month.
May 2023 Witnessed a Decline in Home Sales in Fredericton Area
The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc. has reported a decline in the number of homes sold through its MLS ® System in May 2023. A total of 268 units were sold, reflecting an 11.6% decrease compared to May 2022.
The figures for home sales in May were also below the average of the past five years, registering a 10.1% shortfall, and 3.7% below the 10-year average for the same month.
For the year-to-date period, the total number of home sales stood at 870 units, marking a significant 21.8% decline from the corresponding period in 2022.
Commenting on the market conditions, Michele Morris, President of the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc., stated, “MLS ® home sales in May were slightly below average, and the number of newly listed properties fell short of our expectations for this time of year. As new listings outpaced sales, the overall inventory surpassed 500 homes for the first time since late summer 2022. Although the average price and MLS ® HPI Benchmark price experienced marginal increases in May, the market balance favored sellers, albeit not as strongly as in recent months. Our local market has demonstrated steady growth since the beginning of 2023, and we anticipate this trend will continue throughout the summer months.”
The MLS ® Home Price Index (HPI) provides a more accurate representation of price trends compared to average or median price measures. In May 2023, the overall MLS ® HPI composite benchmark price was reported as $281,600, showing a 4.8% decrease compared to May 2022.
Breaking it down by property type, the benchmark price for single-family homes stood at $282,100, reflecting a moderate 5% decrease year-over-year in May. On the other hand, the benchmark apartment price saw a modest gain of 1.9% from the previous year, reaching $269,100.
The average price of homes sold in May 2023 was $334,799, indicating a 2.2% decline from May 2022. Looking at the broader picture, the year-to-date average price amounted to $321,740, representing a 2% decrease from the first five months of 2022.
In terms of the total value of home sales, May 2023 witnessed transactions amounting to $89.7 million, marking a 13.5% decrease compared to the same month in 2022.
New listings in May experienced a slight increase of 0.3% (equivalent to one listing) compared to May 2022, with a total of 388 new residential listings recorded.
According to the statistical report released by the Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc., new listings in May were 6.2% below the five-year average and 18.9% below the 10-year average for the same month.
At the end of May 2023, there were 522 active residential listings on the market, indicating a significant 31.5% increase from the end of May 2022. However, these active listings were 23.3% below the five-year average and 58.6% below the 10-year average for the month of May.
